From a betfair members.

 

"only half fit" - 50-60%?
"getting near where i want him to be" 80-90%
"just about now fully fit" 90%
"just missing something" 95%
"fully fit" 100%

Then convert your percentages into lengths. On flat races there maybe 10 horses across the line in 8 lengths. so what is the answer?

Half fit 50% does that finish within 8 lengths of the winner?

So each 10% may be .8 of a percent

80% may be 1.6 lengths off 100%

90% may be .8 lengths off 100%

95% my be 0.4 lenghts off 100%

It won't stand up, as a horse just running in a paddock will get itself 80% fit, then you have pre training and then trials and training,
and then race fitness levels.

My 1% = 1 lengths stands up.

A horse 100% fit will have a 6 lengths edge over a horse 94% fit.


Then you have fitness verses the speed of a horse.


Fitness Margins vs Science

When a horse is 100% fit it can run 50kph over a short distance to win a race.

Why would you want to back a horse that can only run 35kph?

My fitness formula is based on 1% = 1 length in advantage a horse has over another, so a horse 10% less fit i.e.: 90% can be beaten by 10 lengths by a 100% fit horse.

What tests are there to prove your formula?

Scientific test proved that a car travelling at 45kph (10% slower) behind a car travelling at 50kph

will finish 25 meters behind the faster car over a short distance, the same as horses at full speed.

The length of a horse is universally accepted at 2.4 meters, so x 10 lengths = 24 meters.

So my formula is scientifically proven and correct, and it only took me 50 years!

Punters ask yourself; "Why would you want to back a horse unfit to run only 35kph when you can back a horse fit to win running at 50kph?"

It took me 150,000 hours to work this out.

Keep at it, it is all maths and science.

James

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