Fairy tale stuff without knowing how fit the horses are.
The answer to whip-rule protests?
Respected form analyst Dominic Beirne has outlined his formula for quantifying advantage gained by overuse of the whip, in a bid to table a solution to potential future race protests.
Beirne told RSN 927's Racing Pulse that his formula of '0.1x/a' could be the answer Racing Victoria stewards, and those Australia-wide, could be searching for.
Basically, 'x' would be the number of illegal whip uses - that is, the number exceeding five uses prior to the 100m mark. 'A' is the claiming kilograms of the apprentice, where applicable.
So if 10 illegal uses of the whip equates to a one-length advantage, if a senior jockey over-whips by 10 and wins the race by less than a length, then theoretically, the race would go to the protesting horse.
Beirne, referencing the recent unsuccessful whip-rule protest at Sportsbet-Ballarat where Lachlan King overused the whip in a narrow win for Tavonian, said it was illogical that stewards can come up with a sanction for whip breaches that don't affect the race result.
King was fined $750 for over-use, and a further $250 for consecutive-stride use prior to the 100m mark.
"Those things [fines for consecutive stride, over-use] are able to be quantified, but not the margin. Or to be fair to the steward, he's quantified the margin as less than 0.1 of a length. And you'll never uphold one on the base of that," Beirne said, in reference to the June 4 protest.
Brooke Sweeney protested after her mount Penny To Sell was beaten by 0.1 of a length by the King-ridden Tavonian.
Beirne added he felt RV's chairman of stewards, Terry Bailey, should be more open to protests regarding whip use, and not bypass the issue.
"I was surprised Terry would say that [he would never uphold a whip protest]," Beirne said.
"I put an example on Twitter whereby if a jockey hit a horse every second stride from the top of the straight to the 100m mark, and exceeded the number of legal hits by 10 - so he kept hitting the horse every second stride - and the horse won by a nose, and the second horse protested ... if the stewards aren't prepared to act upon such a circumstance as that, the rule is not being policed.
"This rule can be policed; it's just going to take a brave steward to be the first one to do it.