Aug 5

 

 

I am off to Mars for live broadcasting.

 

I am no spring chicken and before I croak it I wonder if I could get to Mars and live broadcast winners

from up there.

 

Now that’s would be a challenge in about 10 years’ time!

 

I can do that.

 

James

 

Mr James Conway CEO 28.8

28.8 World’s No 1 LIVE FREE Horse Fitness % Web App.

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

www.28point8.com

 

Aug 4

 

 

Spread betting is here... so what is it?

 
Spread betting: "by how much" matters!

Spread betting has officially hit Australia. 

A long-time fixture in America and Europe, the launch of PointsBet means Australia has its first spread betting bookmaker. It’s a new concept for many of us, so we took the opportunity to take a look at how it works.

What is it?

Spread betting is a form of wagering where the size of payoff is dependent on the accuracy of the bet.

A traditional fixed-odds bet presents a simple win or loss equation: the punter either loses the bet and forfeits the stake, or wins and collects at odds.

Spread betting is different in that the size of the win or loss varies, depending on ‘how’ right or wrong the position taken is.

How does it work?

Each bet has a nominated unit: simple examples of this include a points margin or total goals.  The bookmaker will take a position in the market and then set a spread.

Punters place their wager on either side of the spread and nominate a bet amount.  For every unit they’re ‘right’ by, they win 1x their bet amount.  Otherwise, for every unit they’re wrong by, they lose 1x their bet amount.

It’s best illustrated by a simple example.

Event: AFL match, Essendon vs North Melbourne

Bet Type: Line Bet

Essendon Line: -28 points

North Melbourne Line: +24 points

In this example the bookie has set a four point spread between the two teams.  Punters choose their stake and back Essendon -28 points, or North Melbourne +24 points.

Match outcome: Essendon win by 33 points.

Based on that score, Essendon backers won their bet by 5 points (+33 point margin, -28 point line).  Therefore they win 5x their nominated stake.

North Melbourne backers lost their bet by 9 points (-33 point margin, +24 point line).  They lose 9x their nominated stake.

Punters can choose their own stake: a North Melbourne backer betting $10 per point would have lost $90 (9 points x $10 stake).  An Essendon backer betting $300 per point would have won $1,500 (5 points x $300 stake).

Stop limits

Most spread bookies allow punters to set a stop limit, which caps the maximum amount they can win (or lose) on a single bet.

Bet types

Whilst the above example uses simple match points and a line, some spread bookies offer almost endless combinations of units for betting on.  Examples include: 

  • Total match points (eg, AFL match points: < 170 or > 180)
  • Time of first goal (eg, < 300 seconds or > 400 seconds)
  • Tournament finishing position (eg, < 5th place or > 8th place)

Multipliers

On top of a multitude of different bet types, spread bookies also offer ‘multipliers’ where a number of factors are multiplied by each other to produce a single unit to which the spread is applied.

A good example of this is a basketball stats multiplier:

Stephen Curry multiplier: points x assists x fouls. < 330 or > 390.

Multipliers offer a huge amount of uncertainty: in this example the difference between 28 or 29 points won’t make a huge amount of difference to the total, but a difference of one foul could completely make or break a bet.  It’s this kind of engagement that tends to attract people to spread betting.

First impressions...

In a word – interesting!

It’s certainly a different approach to sports betting.  It’s easy to get your head around the basics, but you need to think a little harder to make smarter bets.

Match line bets are a good example.  Punters are accustomed to approaching or taking a line bet that may only look a little off, but with spread betting paying out per point, you really want a bet that you’re confident will salute by a decent margin in order to ensure a good win.

A big attraction is that you’re in the game right until the end as every point or goal counts toward you either winning more or losing more.  This makes it really entertaining and great for recreational betting – if you’re sitting around watching a neutral game it’s a fun way to get involved.

On face value it can seem a little risky, but it’s really not that different to regular fixed odds betting as long as you stake sensibly.  And you can limit your losses with most bookies which offers peace-of-mind.

Definitely worth a look – feel your way through it early and there’s fun to be had.

Aug 4

Betfair.

 

Sunbets UK / Tabcorp / Murdoch

04 Aug 17 06:42
Joined:
12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 4,395 | 
 
 
 
I mentioned the other night I saw Goodwood live at home in Melbourne mounting yard coverage, and was left scratching my head, why?

It seems TABCORP with Rupert Murdoch are after UK punters $$ and already have 100 staff on the floor to entice you to bet with them.

Cause outside UK, they wont let others have a look at their website.

This makes good global expansion sense and Sky at home and UK may want more mounting yard coverage broadcasted.

If this happens Betfair members will reap my services on putting punters on the fitter horses and unfit horses to lose.

Any updates here and there would be most appreciated.

After 4 solid days of testing, we could be ticking off my fitess ratings software to go FREE LIVE next week, fingers crossed.

Plenty is happening in the UK from Australian multi-billionaire interests.

Jim
Aug 3

 

 

The Pies won the match!

 

The Pies beat the Crows and they have got the function of the siren wrong.

 

Watch the final seconds several times and the clock said game over, but no

siren, this is when the ball was marked.

 

It would be something like this 3-2-1-0-press the button – siren sounds.

 

Between press the button and siren, he took the mark and kicked the

goal that levelled the scores.

 

It should be 3-2-1-press the button – siren sounds.

 

Pies won the match and we was robbed.

 

James

Aug 3

 

 

Hey punters have a look at a new app.

Plunge App is free and post market movers around Australia.

Most fit horses firm, so is interesting.

 

Cheers Jim

Aug 3

 

 

Watson knows about 75% of what I do after 30 years of training! Later he will be doing some dogs and trots

in the evening.

 

 

From: Watson, Sent: Thursday, August 3, 2017 8:42 AM
To: James Conway
Subject: RE: [External] FW: 28.8 New broadcasting rules out any fitness learning for punters.

 

From: James Conway [mailto:This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.]
Sent: Thursday, 3 August 2017 8:32 AM
To:
Subject: RE: [External] FW: 28.8 New broadcasting rules out any fitness learning for punters.

 

 

The right bet on the right race with the right knowledge, well done buddy. How can one man have so much talent.  The grasshopper has leant well from the Master

 

It is easier to get a fit roughie up in the dogs than any other bets, is that right?  It appears that way

 

 

From: Watson, Sent: Thursday, August 3, 2017 8:25 AM
To: James Conway
Subject: RE: [External] FW: 28.8 New broadcasting rules out any fitness learning for punters.

 

Yeah baby……..took $1500 out

 

From: James Conway [mailto:This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.]
Sent: Thursday, 3 August 2017 8:24 AM
To:
Subject: RE: [External] FW: 28.8 New broadcasting rules out any fitness learning for punters.

 

Wow, well done, isn’t it a good feeling walking out winning THAT MUCH!

 

From: Watson, August 3, 2017 7:52 AM
To: James Conway
Subject: RE: [External] FW: 28.8 New broadcasting rules out any fitness learning for punters.

 

Go 8-6-2-3 @ Wentworth R6……………Yippeeeeeee  Tri $1354     P4 $3167

 

Spent $42 to get 100%  8-F-F

Same spend on P4 gets 20%........$633  Huge difference

 

8 - $8.80 W (Super fittest)

6 - $7.70 P  ($71 fxd)

2 - $1.40 P  ($2.20 fav)

3                   ($9 missed 3rd in photo)

 

Regards,

 

Watson

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 3

 

 

It's 12.20am here in Ozz and for the first time I can see, have been sitting on the couch watching

the parade yard at Goodwood in all the rain and slow to heavy tracks and rugs on horses and

looks a miserable day at the races.

Australia with the upcoming merger of TABCORP and Tatts ($9 billion) thank you very much, want

to go world wide with more races, more races and more races to get punters betting.

Now I am not sure of why the Goodwood meetings is showing horses in the mounting yards,

maybe some one can help me, but this is ideal for me to rate every horse in fitness percentage ratings.

That is good news for UK punters to know who is fit and who is not, but I do need to see

them in the mounting yards, and not behind the barriers or on the track for a standing starts.

So if the powers to be over there, show more in the yard and Australia picks up the coverage,

all is good and I will do Australian races in the afternoon, take a nap and do UK at night from Melbourne.

Ratings are good information to back, dutch, lay unfit and bet in the run.

My crystal ball tells me that Befair is going to be even bigger in 12 months time and if I can see

horses that you can bet and trade on, I think I can double Betfairs turnover on those races.

The bookies that are not letting you on now will be left behind because they will ban 50% of their

customers because they will see the patterns you are betting with, and they do not like "system" punters.

This leaves bookies no alternatives but to open up another dozen "betfair" exchanges to keep up, or

scale down on horse racing and just work more on world sports.

It will be all good news for the punter, you do your form, cause I don't; and then match up with

fitter horses for an edge.

All is good, my crystal ball is clear.

Aug 2

 

BETFAIR FORUM.

02 Aug 17 13:07
Joined:
12 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 4,393 | Blogger: value bet's blog
 
Tell me about it, my news letters go to thousands of punters and many are in the racing industry including broadcasting.

I AM A BAD MAN!

You watch all this hit the fan in the next 6 months!

I am moving to the UK!

Jim
Rate reply:
 
 
 
02 Aug 17 13:03
Joined:
05 Jun 03
| Topic/replies: 427 | Blogger: mouse muldoon's blog
 
 
THEY don't want you to win.

 

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