May 14

 

 

BOTH UNFIT HORSES NEVER BEAT A RUNNER HOME.

 

THERE IS OUR FITNESS EDGE.

May 14

 

 

How To Take The Punt Out Of Punting

 

Day 1.

 

I was watching a lot and then fell asleep, but had 2 bets on unfit horses that never beat a horse home.

 

Bet 1.   9/9 liability 15/1   100% Profit

 

Bet 2.  10/10 liability  8/1   100% Profit.

 

I also could not resist a place bet of $1.76 (Won) tote was offering $1.30, so huge overs.

 

So had nice profit of 276%

 

I need to find out how to place my own odds as I could of offered 9/1 the place instead of

taking the 15/1 liability.

 

It would not be hard to offer way overs to punters.

 

The other lay I could of got set on 7/1 early reducing that liability.

 

James

May 14

 

 

 


How To Take The Punt Out Of Punting.

What cool words and not on google, but is now!



The more I researched on my lay place bets, the more it looks pretty fool proof subject to human error.

Starting with a $500 bank, but as a 2 bob punting pensioner, I will play it small and keep you updated.

 

In reality, I could back 100 - 150 straight winners a week and if I drop one, I will bear

down hard and quicker to get it back.


If they showed horses in the parade yard in UK I would post my place lays up, but they don’t.

If I bet from behind the barriers in UK, I would lose 20% of my strike rate, and that is bad.

 

I have a 4.16% losing strike rate going against me after 601 races, but that will decrease now.


Will have to watch heaps of Betfair videos to find out how to do this.



I would imagine the market to be settled down with 3-4 minutes to jump when I bet.

 

Let's get read to rumble!



James

 

 

 

May 13

 

 

Is lay place betting our best system?

WIN LAYING.

Win lay is our best system with a strike rate of 99.67% with 601 lays and 599 winners up and no
Pay outs for over 6 months and last 491 straight with a strike rate of 100%.


But:

Your liability can be from 15/1 to 100/1 and if one gets up at say 100/1, you have to
get the next 101 in to get your money back. It’s a big call, but 99.67% fool proof.

PLACE LAYING.

I had an interesting experience yesterday with an early place lay running third at just over 8/1.

So on our books we are down $800 ($100 per lay)

With 601 races and 576 strike rate of 95.84% I was confident of getting our $800 payout back in just one day.

Which I did and then returned a $400 profit on the day. It is easy to bear down and find unfit horses not to run a place.

So what is the point I am trying to make?

If you don’t back a winner and try and chase it, it may well not happen and is too hard at times.

If you are caught on a win lay, you are looking at months to get your bank back especially if huge odds.

But a place lay, with 1/3rd – ¼ liability can be re couped in only 1 day on the punt.

To me that makes place laying a real sound system.

James

May 12

 

 

We had 12 place lays for 1 pay out of $800 but finished with a profit still of $400.

 

Is interesting how I got caught early on a place lay of $800, so pulled my finger out and got

back thatand an extra $400 to win on the day.

 

This is a pretty good systems with only ¼ of the liabilities.

 

I hate losing!

May 12

 

 

We had 12 place lays for 1 pay out of $800 but finished with a profit still of $400.

 

It interesting how I got caught early on a place lay of $800, so pulled my finger out and got back

an extra $400 to win on the day. This is a pretty good systems with only ¼ of the lay costs.

 

I hate losing.

May 12

 

 

Summary: 

 

We spent $7,000 to win $19,200 with a $12,200 profit or 175% ROI, out top line got caught out early but we

came home good with 74% win strike rate top line.

 

We had 12 win lays for 100% strike rat and $1,200 profit.

 

We had 12 place lays for 1 pay out of $800 but finished with a profit still of $400.

 

Thanks and back again some time during the week.

 

OUR WEIR AND WALLER FITNESS EDGE WON TODAY, and they both won interstate also,

 

Waller's horses are fitter this year.

 

May 12

 

 

28.8 HAVE AN INSIDE EDGE ON CHRIS WALLERS'S STABLE.

 

From a forum:

It’s all about finding an edge over ur fellow trainers. No doubt Waller has found one whatever it is.

Waterhouse lost hers once Waller got set up.

 

 

Nice work during the week.

 

225% ROI

 

30/32 94% Strike rate top line wins.

20 lays undefeated, 100% strike rate.

All good stuff as Wednesday was a real battle but we still shone through.

James

 

Waller, Weir, Winners we have a real edge from these trainers

and that is more winners for members.

 

Cheers James

 

 

Good morning members we are live today at Caulfield and Scone and anywhere

elsewhere I see a fit winner.

See you about 11.30am, James

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