May 19

 

 

Defying the odds

Fri, 21 April 2017 11:28 AM

One of Australia's top racing journalists showed punters just how far quality racing information can go last month. Clinton Payne, senior journalist with racing site Racenet, topped the profit makers list over the 31 day period, out performing Australia's racing media elite, professional punters and other racing fans who record their bets and tips at theGreatTipOff.com. Payne's 17 best bets in March delivered punters a massive 256% profit on turnover (POT), topping off an enviable 12 month run where his followers made a 38% profit windfall from his 113 selections published over the 365 days.

Speaking to Payne this week we learned that his success in racing goes beyond long hours and hard work, but rather stems from his deep rooted life-long quest to defy the odds.

Defying the Odds

With a life-long dream to become a sports journalist, Clint heard the calls to study hard as a teenager and Clinton Paynework towards a degree to make his dream become a reality. Without a passion for academia however he couldn't wait to give the books away and get out into workforce. While still holding onto his dream tightly, Payne found himself miles from the pack with only a burning desire for racing to guide him through his quest. With the odds stacked against him, he managed to etch a path towards his career goal. Starting as a racing journalist with Racenet 15 years ago, he has since become one of the most respected voices in Australian thoroughbred racing.

Payne's approach towards form is much the same as his quest to become a racing journalist - challenging the odds to finish-up in front.

 

 

360 degrees analysis

Like many professional form analysts, Payne aims to find value when he assesses a race. He knows that if he keeps finding horses that are over the odds, the laws of probability have to put him in front. While it's a commendable goal to have, the effort to achieve it is nothing short of an analytical marathon. The Racenet form specialist spends up to eight hours per meeting working through multiple layers of analysis to eventually arrive at his preferred selections.

If not doing the form he's into research, watching live Sydney metropolitan and NSW provincial races, in addition to barrier trials across the state, either on track or in front of a screen.

Payne's approach towards race assessment is very detailed and includes multiple steps to eventually arrive at his selections.

 

Step 1 Raw set of ratings

  • produces a rating for each runner in every race using his preferred ratings algorithm

Step 2 Assess race factors

  • produces speed maps, placing a strong emphasis on pace in the race to determine where the favours and risks are likely to be;
  • notes and assesses gear changes; and
  • predicts track conditions using current track ratings and weather predictions to determine how the track will play on race day.

Step 3 Adjust ratings - initial raw ratings are now adjusted to consider assessed favours or challenges identified in Step 2.

Step 4 Video insights- then reviews video footage to identify runs which provide additional insights into a horse's chances - this is where he can gain a significant edge over the market. The senior racing journalist pays particular attention to the form patterns that horses tend to develop over their career and looks to confirm that these historical form patterns are playing out again.

It’s amazing how many horses produce very similar results from one prep to another. Payne told us

He rates each run and maintains a history of the peaks and troughs for every preparation for every horse in scope. One of the biggest opportunities that form pattern analysis provides is where horse's experience peaks that follow troughs in their campaigns.

An example of that could be a horse that produces X rating first-up, then drops a couple of points second-up before producing a preparation high spike third-up. That sort of profile will normally give you value - Clinton Payne.

Step 5 Produce selections - final selections are produced and published

 

Home Ground Advantage

Payne's comprehensive approach to form analysis creates significant workload, which demands a high Top horse racing punters in March 2017degree of discipline and focuss to ensure sufficient time is allocated and corners are never cut. To achieve this end Payne keeps his analysis focussed on Sydney and expands that scope to provincial and country tracks only when required. With two to three metropolitan meetings in Sydney each week, the Racenet form expert is spending up to three days on form work each week, and about the same time attending race meetings.

On race day you will find Clint in the media room talking to trainers, jockeys and connections to get the low down on each runner's performance. Payne's detailed race day notes feed into the mountain of racing articles that he produces for Racenet and his form database which he uses in the later stages of his form assessment process.

 

Words Of Wisdom

Payne's quest to find value doesn't always lie in the most conventional areas. He says the more you do form, the more you learn traits of horses, but you also learn them about trainers and jockeys. This knowledge becomes a tool that you can use to find value in markets. Rather than reciting a quick rule-of-thumb for punters to follow, the Racenet form guru suggests turning some much cited quick ways-to-win on their head. An example of this is - rather than using the market popularity of Chris Waller's runners early in their preparations, in some instances you can use this as an opportunity for value by betting around them.

Chris Waller-trained horses are I’d say 95 percent of the time ridden negatively if they draw wide early in a campaign. He’s not the sort of trainer that want’s to undo all the hard work early in a prep so I tend to bet around those sort of horses as its rare his runners are not in the market early in their campaigns.

Another example where value can be found, cited by Payne.

I love finding horses with strong form credentials trained by an unfashionable trainer/jockey combo as they sometimes throw up huge value - Jungle Edge winning at Rosehill on BMW day was a great example of that landing $11 in first markets.

Read more about Clinton Payne and keep up to date with his stories at Racenet here.

Author: Damian Deguara

May 19

 

All interesting reading, 28.8 don't tip, we rate fitness. I am going back to bed now, my back feels better, Jim

 

Top Horse Racing Tipster sites revealed

Fri, 05 May 2017 05:18 PM

With a continuous stream of self-promoting banter across the web and social media, its high time to reveal the top performing horse racing tipping sites on the Internet. Using our daily harvest of best bets from the most recognised racing sites in Australia, we've compiled a list of the best performers so far in 2017.

Which Racing websites were included?

The tipping sites covered by our analysis include:

 

Racing Site
Associated
media sites
# Tipsters*
Sky Racing   44

News Limited

SuperRacing.com.au, Herald Sun & Daily Telegraph 24
Best Bets Racing.com 11
RSN Racing   10
The West Australian   8
G1X LoveThePunt.com.au 7
Sydney Morning Herald & The Age Illawarra Mercury, Newcastle Herald 6
Racenet   4
RacingandSports.com.au   2

 

 

What method was used to identify the top performers?

With the best bets from all these sites collected daily, we had to determine a fair approach to arrive at the best racing tipping site. The number of tipsters at each site varied significantly starting from as small as a few tipsters, up to 44 for the largest broadcaster in the nation.

To make it fair to sites with more tipsters, we took the aggregated profit on turnover of the Top 3 tipsters from each site to produce the best performers. The information listed in the top performers table includes:

  • Profit on Turnover, which is profit made shown as a percentage of turnover on the selections;
  • Number of tips posted by the Top 3 performing form analysts at the racing website and
  • Overall site profit which indicates whether or not the combined profit and losses from all tipsters on the site have produced a profit.

Selections are taken every day from every best bet posted on the respective websites between the period of January 1 2017 up to 30 April. If best bets are not offered by a tipster, all selections are taken.

 

Top Horse Racing Websites

Top Tipsters in 2017

The winning form analysts whose profit statistics made-up the aggregated profit score for each tipping website include.

Best Bets

  • Ken Coram, who tips exclusively for Best Bets,boasts a massive 100% profit on turnover (POT) from 27 best bets with his winners averaging $6.
  • Joel Marshall made 47% POT from 76 selections with his winning odds averaging $5.87.
  • Brendan Tupper had the third highest profit with 21% POT from 86 best bets posted.

SMH and The Age

  • Mitch Cohen 102% POT from 52 selections.
  • Danny McGrath 13% POT from 119 selections.
  • Peter Davis 8% POT from 72 tips.

Sky Racing

  • Colin McNiff, covers Tasmanian calling duties for National broadcaster SKY Racing, achieving a 39% POT from 56 tips in 2017 to date.
  • Lizzie Jelfs is a recent addition to the racing talent at SKY Racing and she has been quick to prove her horse racing knowledge to punters. Over the four month period assessed, Jelfs' selections have landed punters a cool 33% POT with average winning odds of $5.55.
  • Chantelle Buckley had the third highest profit over the period with 12% POT from her best selections.

RSN Racing

  • Matthew Hill has done more than bring a fresh voice to the RSN race calling team after replacing veteran caller Greg Miles earlier in the year. Hill boasts a massive 58% POT, bringing new meaning to a 'good call' at RSN Racing.
  • Adam Olszanski comes in at 7% POT and
  • Adam Crettenden snuck over the line to make a profit.

G1X

  • David Taggart is a recent addition to the G1X stable. In 2017 he has posted 27 best bets which landed 8 winners at average odds of $4.67, delivering punters a 38% POT.
  • Alex Marsh, another recent addition to the team has produced 18% POT in the same time period; and
  • Brock Anderson has given punters 9% POT from his best bet selections.
May 19

 

 

 

28.8 Sports News

 

A huge edge with 28.8

 

Our marketing expands now with the amazing success of dog fitness ratings plus winners in harness.

 

Been surfing dog and harness forums/media and great news for us to broaden our members base.

 

Dog ratings are running boiling hot and allowing for slow outs, checks and not chasing; the majority of

races I am on the best 2 fittest dogs and you can see it in the run.

 

Very interesting to watch a little bit of magic.

 

Harness ratings; of all the codes, I think unfit favourites or fancied runners are clearest

to me and that gives members great overs in all types of harness bets.

 

 

The problem with the trots is very poor pre-race coverage except for New Zealand.

 

Unfit favourites in the trots just do not win.

 

Jim

 

Mr James Conway CEO 28.8

28.8 World’s No 1 INSIDE Horse Fitness % Winners

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

www.28point8.com

 

 

May 18

 

Waller gets the nod as best trainer.

 
 

Williams pays Waller huge compliment

Hall Of Fame inductee Lloyd Williams Image: Getty
Australian Racing Hall Of Fame inductee Lloyd Williams has paid trainer Chris Waller the highest compliment for his handling of champion mare Winx.

Five-time Melbourne Cup-winning owner Williams and dual Cox Plate winner Winx were two of 11 new inductees into the Hall Of Fame announced on Wednesday.

Williams said it was appropriate Winx, unbeaten at her past 17 starts, joined the Hall of Fame while still racing but added Waller should have been inducted at the same time.

"When you think at May 30 of her three-year-old career, when just about to turn four, that was her first Group One win," Williams told Melbourne radio RSN927.

"Chris has taken her from that stage into a champion.

"It says something of how good a trainer he is."

Williams described his first Melbourne Cup victory with Just A Dash in 1982 as probably his most significant because of his association with TJ Smith.

He first met the legendary trainer in the 1960s and said it changed his life as far as racing was concerned.

"He probably mentored me into doing what I'm doing now in a private operation," he said.

Williams nominated Efficient as the best horse among his five Cup winners but limited because he was unsound while he had the most confidence in Green Moon before his 2012 Cup success.



Champion stayer Efficient. Image: Getty

"In my punting days he is one I probably would have made start favourite," he said.

Williams described Mahogany as the most versatile of his horses with his two Derby wins and two Lightning Stakes.

He was also narrowly beaten in a Cox Plate, one race Williams has yet to win.

"Poor old Zipping, he ran seconds and thirds in it and I can't believe Fawkner didn't win when Aidan O'Brien's horse Adelaide got up and beat him," Williams said.

"You have to be very fortunate in racing."
May 17

 

 

Good morning members,

 

Just an update and we have test run a few unique software programs to fit our native software.

 

We have found the right program for us and we now going through the application of certificates to use,

which can take 10 days.

 

Surely, ready then!

 

*****The Dogs Are Barking!

 

I keep test running dog fitness ratings with amazing results; like a 2nd pick of 2 fittest, the

6 paying a huge $97 the win.

 

I am confident that the dogs will return the best strike rates for punters followed

by the thoroughbred then harness.

 

It helps that I was a successful dog trainer.

 

So study your betting especially fixed odds, because I can see prices crashing on the dogs and

also betting and laying on Betfair.

 

Get in early for top prices to trade and maybe not lose and doesn’t get any better than that!

 

Good luck

 

Jim

 

 

 

Mr James Conway CEO 28.8

28.8 World’s No 1 INSIDE Horse Fitness % Ratings

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

www.28point8.com

 

May 17

 

 

Hi James,

Your below TAB Blackbook selections are coming up in the next 24 hours:.

Selections

Event

Start Time

ICON OF DUBAI

WARWICK FARM  

R

1  

17 May - 12:45pm  

         
         
       

 

.

If you would like to stop receiving Blackbook notifications, please update your Blackbook selections by logging in online.

May 17

 

 

Matt Cumani

Trainer Matt Cumani (Image: Racing Photos)

Cumani cops strangles suspension

Trainer Matt Cumani has been fined $20,000 and had his licence suspended until August for failing to adhere to Racing Victoria protocols following the outbreak of strangles at his stable last year.

Cumani pleaded guilty to two charges, one for conduct prejudicial to the image of racing and the second for not notifying authorities that he had horses who were infected with the highly contagious disease.

His period of suspension is due to start in seven days, allowing time to organise the transfer of horses under his care.

RAD Board Judge John Bowman said he was close to issuing Cumani with a period of disqualification but opted for a suspension due to his favourable references.

Cumani, 36, was represented at the hearing by barrister Joe Ferwerda, who said his client had taken full responsibility for his actions and was remorseful as to how the situation played out.

It was revealed at the hearing that Cumani first became aware that a horse in his care was showing signs of strangles on October 27 but did not alert stewards until November 23, despite several warnings from his stable vet.

During that time, Cumani was preparing imported horse Grey Lion for the Melbourne Cup, from the quarantine centre at Werribee, and conducted a stable open day at his Ballarat base.

This open day involved many owners visiting his newly-built facility, with the owners mingling with horses who had been exposed to those suffering from strangles.

The open day was held on November 19, which was Ballarat Cup Day.

"Luckily the spread of disease was not as bad as what it could have been," Judge Bowman said.

"A clear message must be sent to trainers in the industry that the reporting of outbreaks of listed diseases must be done in the quickest possible manner.

"You did not do this and were too worried about your own interests.

"Immediate notification is necessary so equally immediate steps of quarantine can take place.

"(Racing Victoria steward) Mr Ogilvy pointed out in April 2016 a complete meeting at Wangaratta was abandoned and a racecourse was placed in lockdown when an on-course trainer notified stewards that a case of strangles was detected in one horse at the stables.

"This was an example of the drastic and immediate action that needs to be taken."

Judge Bowman was extremely disappointed that Cumani failed to report the issue, despite being told to do so by his own vet.

"You were specifically told of your duty to report by your vet Dr Anderson in later October 2016 but you did not do this until November 23, when the cat was effectively out of the bag by then," he said.

"Instead of quarantining your stable of horses, you simply continued to train and certainly took some measures in relation to controlling it, it was no means complete.

"Your primary obligation is to report to the stewards immediately, instead you pressed on, possibly influenced by the fact you were going to have your first Melbourne Cup runner.

"Essentially you put your interests ahead of those of the stewards, your fellow trainers, proprietors of other racing establishments and your owners.

"You did this at a time of the year when racing was very much in the spotlight, the Melbourne Cup was run and so too your local Ballarat Cup, potentially jeopardising the most important day of the Ballarat racing calendar."

Terry Henderson was present at the hearing and provided a written reference supporting Cumani.

While not reading the entire reference, Judge Bowman explained that Henderson was irate with the way Cumani handled the situation and he wasn't pleased with being kept in the dark.

"Mr Henderson's lengthy reference is particularly well balanced and expressed, apart from strongly supporting you, it also makes apparent Mr Henderson's anger and disappointment at what you have done in jeopardising  not only your own career and training operations but also potentially the operations of others," he said.

"Strangles is highly contagious and Mr Henderson's observation in going beyond his own direct interest and speaking about the welfare of others is very appropriate and important.

May 17

 

 

He gets fitter horses home, and u cannot ask for any more than that.

 

Bayliss, Lindsay Park dominate at Geelong

12 hours ago

Young jockey Regan Bayliss has ridden a career-best five winners in a day at Geelong, all for the powerful Lindsay Park stable.

After wins to Sia, Mutin, Bogong Road and Vintage Quartz on Tuesday's provincial program, Bayliss told broadcaster Racing.com it had been one of his goals to ride four winners in a day.

"To be able to do it today is terrific," Bayliss said.

But 20-year-old Bayliss and the Lindsay Park team weren't done yet.

They rounded out the meeting in the final race with Concubine winding up down the outside to win a 1300m benchmark-64 handicap.

"I was happy with one winner but to be able to get five winners here today is truly remarkable," Bayliss said.

"All the horses were in the right races today and they all looked very well placed. I'm glad I was able to sit on their backs."

He rode his first Group One winner in March aboard Lindsay Park's Redkirk Warrior in the Newmarket Handicap.

Bayliss is booked to ride Faatinah for the stable in Saturday's Group One Goodwood in Adelaide.



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