To: 'Watson,
Subject: RE: [External] 28.8: Whip rule and big, big, big News.

Mate u and me are back in the unfit pack and only get hit five times and then we go back to the stable for a feed,

500 metres from home, how good is that!

Sent: Thursday, 3 December 2015 9:52 AM
To: James Conway
Subject: RE: [External] 28.8: Whip rule and big, big, big News.

Whip Me Whip Me

The new whip rule puts the breaks on unfit horses back in the pack, amazing!

How good is that for 28.8 members!

Win, Win, Win!

Please read how the new whip rule is a massive edge for 28.8 members.

It is only 2 days into the new whip rule where horses cannot be hit more than 5 times before 

the 100 metres mark to finish off a race and already jockeys are seeing the edge in being in the

front pack.

“Horse that are racing on the pace have a far bigger advantage than horses back in the pack

because of the new whip rules, quoted by many jockeys and all in 2 days of racing!”

Which is right, horses 10 – 15 lengths back need a hurry on with the whip to improve so as to

win.

Now the big, big, big, big, big, good news for 28.8 members.

I have known for years, but members of the last 3 months will notice that our fitter group of

horses, about 90% of them are up racing on the pace during the race because of superior fitness

levels.

Now our fit horses all have a bigger edge over back markers and unfit horses because of this new

whip rule.

Speed mats are inconsistent because they cannot include fitness into their data.

Your form guide will now be in mess because of this new whip rule.

It puts the breaks on unfit horses back in the pack, amazing!

This is huge for us, and you really should join today @ only $6 per meeting to get that front pack

running edge in fitness.

Cheers

Jim

Hey bud

Horses not rated on our fitness line:  525, lost 520 times:  (Strike rate 99%)

Do you know what the dividends were of the 5 horses not rated that won. Still ahead ?

Yes,  Scott your liabilities were $6,  $6,  $12, $10, $13 = Total   $47, allow for Betfair overs and could be $60

·       525 lays x 100%  =  52,500 points.

·       Pay out 6,000     =  46,500 points

Or    46,500% profit in 1 month.

If you lay 6 unfit horses in a race and one wins you do win on the other 5, so example of a $6 liability: you win

back 5, so lose only 1 unit or 1,000%

You can only make 100% on lays whether it is 1 x $100 or 6 x $100, costs 600 = returns $600

To decrease your liabilities you could only lay the shortest UNFIT horse and in the above stats you would of

lost on $6, $6, $10, $13   liability of only  $35 or rounding Betfair maybe $40

There are two ways to go about it, but you do need a big bank.

Thanks for the question.

Cheers

Jim

Massive summary Wednesday @ Sandown races.

These are our winners for the day:

1.     Bullish Stock                           $8.10

2.     Aunty Mo                               $2.80

3.     Burgundy Lass                        $3.50

4.     Twisted Typhoon                    $23.70

5.     Hokkaido                                $5.00

6.     Moshula                                 $50.50

7.     Porte Cochere                         $5.10

Total                                                   $98.70

Quinella Dividends                                $405

Exacta                                                 $763

Trifecta                                                $2168

Pick 4                                                  $10,602

Total Exotics                                        $13,938

The last 103 races, rating over 1,200 horses in fitness, we have won 98 times (95% Strike rate)

Horses not rated on our fitness line:  525, lost 520 times:  (Strike rate 99%)

Sandown Saturday, only $6 for the full meeting, join today.

Cheers Jim

http://www.kohnkesown.com/racing16.pdf

Jim

Racehorse Fitness Levels

Obviously one of the keys to backing a winner is betting on a horse that you believe to be fit. It is one of the major considerations in any method of assessing what does and what doesn't constitute a "reasonable bet" - that is, all things being equal, you have a reasonable chance of success.

Note we say reasonable and never certain bet or great bet because certain and great should not exist in the assessment vocabulary of anyone trying to win a few dollars. (Read our series on X Factors elsewhere on this site)

In a study of nearly 24000 races in Australia it was shown that 77.1% of all races were won by horses that had started in the last 21 days. On the outer margin, 82.9% of races were won by horses that started in the last 28 days. Doesn't leave a majority of races for the others, does it? Yes, we all know about the great first up specialists, the ones that "can't be beaten first up" etc etc, ad infinitum, but the reality is that in the long term there is very little future in backing horses that haven't started i at least the last calendar month.

It is one of the first "elimination" rules that we look at in any selection method. I'm blowed of I can see the point of betting in to a 18% chance when I can bet in to an 82% chance - can you? I am very happy lo leave out any horse that doesn't meet these criteria. Is there in fact then a method of laying any horse that hasn't started in the last calendar month, who does not have a good "first up record" with the current trainer and who is less than $4 on Betfair? Could be an avenue for your further investigation.....

One of my friends who has been a life long jockey and trainer assures me a horse starts to lose fitness after 18 - 22 days of intensive training. Why should I doubt that? He knows way more about it than me and it bears out the previously quoted figures. He has won with his horses against much better performed animals, and ones with far more class, simply because his were fit and the much better ones were coming back from a spell and unfit.

A FIT HORSE WITH AVERAGE ABILITY SHOULD ALWAYS BEAT AN UNFIT BETTER PERFORMED HORSE.

Think about it - do you really thing Keiron Perkins today would beat Geoff Heugel, just back from the Commonwealth Games success? And most people would reckon Keiron, if fit, would swim the trunks off Geoff (with all due sincere respect due to Geoff!)

The other point to consider is what is called "the bounce effect". This is where a horse does not perform as well as it otherwise might because it has not fully recovered from the exertions of its previous race.......particularly if it has been a "Herculean" effort at its previous run.

Most horses will need at least a week to get over a race and if it has been a particularly strenuous event because of the competition, distance or going it could take longer.

In my trainer friend's opinion fitness should count for at least 35% of your weighted factors in trying to pick a winner.

Some points to consider if you are at the track and can go to the mounting enclosure and physically have a look at them. (or you may get enough of an idea off, say, TVN. where they have more time before each race than the Sky "sausage machine gun" approach.

1. Fit horses are less likely to sweat than unfit horses.

2. A fit and healthy animal will generally have a shiny coat.

3. A fit horse will generally have good muscle definition.

4. A horse that walks around the mounting enclosure with its head hung down, looking listless, is probably not fit.

Note that we use words like "probably" and "generally" because this is not an exact science and some can be deceptive.

Fitness normally improves with physical exercise and an incremental, repetitive training. However, many horses are raced too early in their race preparation because they look ‘fit’ and win a trial, but in many cases, these horses are probably 70% muscle fit relative to oxygen uptake and it can take 2-3 races before they achieve a fitness level which increases their chances of winning on a repeated basis.

Many gallopers are probably not as fit as they could be after 10-12 weeks of training.

At the end of the day, it is financial suicide to bet on horses that are NO chance of being fit. The long term odds appear to heavily favour a fit horse, and the ONLY way most punters can evaluate that (without being closely tied up with a stable) is to use the old 28 day rule.

Long term it is a worthwhile approach.

RACING TRIALS AND FITNESS

One of the most frequently misunderstood facets of race handicapping is the assessment of a horse’s fitness. It is said that today it is possible to bring horses into peak racing condition through the myriad of pre-training complexes and Taj Mahals for racehorses that are owned by some of the better known racing conglomerates.

I have to admit, that having seen some of these complexes, it must be like going to horse’s heaven compared to the facilities that were available just a couple of decades ago when I was involved in up to 15 syndicates. In my time as a syndicate manager a horses was lucky just to have a roof over it’s head, none of these course swimming pools, equitracks, chiropractors for horses, shock shod shoes and so on. The thoroughbred of my time in the industry must have looked forward to raceday, much the same as children look forward to their annual Show.

It’s extraordinary, isn’t it? In spite of all the modern luxuries, and in spite of all the private training facilities the basics of racehorse fitness as it applies to handicapping remain the same. There is no substitute for race fitness!

These days the race handicapper, whether he be the official club’s handicapper, or whether he is you or me. We all have access through computers to a wealth of information. We can, with a minimum of fuss, check almost any racing statistic.

You can go back twenty years, or even forty years and you will find the statistics for locating fit horses. Consistently through the year over 80% of winners last raced within 21 days! In spite of all the improvements in training techniques and facilities it is no easier to produce horses fit and ready to win without going through the time honoured process of racing them into form.

So what about barrier trials you say? Sure, these can be a guide to how a horse is coming along in training. It is even possible for some horses to win first up with only the benefit of a trial behind them. It is also possible for horses to win first up without any trials. All things are possible, but in our effort to find a winning method we should confine ourselves to a horse’s proven form history if we are to come out winners.

At this point I will divert for a moment to tell you about how a horse thinks. The thoroughbred horse is not a particularly smart animal. A noble animal certainly. A game animal, sure, they are bred to be. A horse acts on instinct. They react according to their instinct and their instinct is not clouded, as a human’s is, by all the tedeous day to day responsibilities that we have. When we attend a racecourse we mix with people from all walks of like but we are all of one mind whilst there. We unavoidably give off a mental message of anticipation as we each visualise the racing that is about to take place. You will all have noticed the way the thoroughbred reacts to this atmosphere in the parade ring. The thoroughbred tunes into our mental messages. The horse knows when he is at a racecourse and is about to race and cannot be fooled by trials, no matter how the riders dress up. It is the mental images that are picked up that count.

You will all at some tine or other noticed the way animals seem to react to your presence before you have been seen. At other times different animals are known to be able to sense the onset of physical events. They are able to sense your fear of them or alternatively your respect. Many a good trainer is able to improve the performance of a horse simply by establishing a rapport with them. An animal’s ability to read our mind if you like, is well established scientific fact. A barrier trial is good, if not essential, training technique, but there remains no substitute for real races.

In barrier trials neither horse nor rider are required to be fair dinkum. The weights, the gear, the intentions are not questioned. A winner may well have won only because the other horses are not there to win. I admit that I like to see a contender that I have selected has recently won a barrier trial. The horse may have last raced two or three weeks ago and needs a trial as a check on his well being. What I am saying though is that trials on their own are no real indication any more than the morning track work.

Many a horse burns the grass at the training tracks only to fail dismally on raceday. My own horse of many years ago Lord Chris, thrived on trackwork and I rode hom everyday, yet when produced on the racetrack he was a duffer. Unless he could stride freely, well away from the other horses he was no hope. It took me years to realise it but Lord Chris was afraid, afraid to do his best yet he enjoyed being a thoroughbred and loved his daily workout. But horses are like people, as varied as chalk and cheese. Some of our best known gallopers are renowned as lazy, unenthusiastic trackworkers, yet when produced on a racetrack give all it takes and more.