They say she is very good, she is also very fit for a 1st up run on Monday at Sandown. (19/97%)

 

Will take the $1.90 and also take the $4.40 for the Blue Diamond because when she whipps them on Monday she will firm to something

like $3.50, so will get on the overs.

 

Cheers Jim

 

 

I spotted Preferment in his first race start at Sandown as an oustanding horse and once I saw his breeding

out of Zabeel, I said to my self this horse will win the Derby.

 

I just kept backing him with top odds of $26.00 into as low as $4.80 and he duly won like a good horses.

 

He is about $4.40 favourite for the Australian Derby in Sydney and must be just about ready to resume.

 

I will check his fitness levels and he will win the Derby x 5 lengths if he regains his 100% fitness levels, then onto the Melbourne Cup.

 

I am looking for a nice balance fitness rating of 18/96% or slightly higher first up to say he is right on track.

 

Cheers Jim

 

 

 

 

Fontiton is racing on Monday, not Saturday, very hard to beat.

Jim

 

 

 

Blue Diamond favourite Fontiton, looks in excellent balanced fitness levels for Saturdays race where it is odds on.

Fit rating first up is a great, solid 97% fit which is excellent.

Fitness levels   96%

Strength factors   98%

Hypertrophic factors  96%

Blood count   99%

If this horse is any good, and some say yes, it shoud win unless some smokey beats it, I notice Oshea has a runner, watch out for it.

Good luck

 

Jim

 

 

Get smart, get rebates + fitness tips.

You will have a fatter wallet.

 

Jim

 

 

28.8 Where punters get the fitness black bookers and in-depth race day reports.

Good morning punters, had a successful day at Geelong with only 3 bets (One which was really, really, dumb)

Plenty of black bookers, horses that are skunks and trainers that missed the boat on fitness, and punters

tried unfit horses and lost badly.

 

 

Geelong 21-01-2015   Track Good

 

Race 1   Maiden 1300mm

 

Top hoop Damian Oliver was $1.15 to win the jockey’s riding honours today and on paper

looked a big show, until you had a look at the half size horses he was asked to ride.

 

Punters had no hope of collecting on Oliver’s mounts today and not his fault, just terrible type of horses.

Nice black bookers here in INDULGE, a nice type of horse that hanged on to just win. With a very low blood count of 17/95,

This horse has 5 lengths improvement in it. Watch out and rate fitter and can keep improving.

 

Well fancied horse with Oliver on board, THE CHAIRMAN, is just an ordinary type with limited scope and is bred to run

further than 1300m today, give it one more chance on 18/96 today, when 3^rd up or in 21 days’ time.

HERE COMES THEBOOM on 17/95, sweated up badly and solid type of horse that ran 2^nd and can follow now 3^rd up.

 

 

Race  2.   Maiden 1715 metres

 

Odds on fav. PLAN, all the rage here and eased out slight and given every chance just faded on the line on 18/96 fit.

This is an ordinary type of horse, so be very careful empting out on it again.

POKAZI on 18/96 did all the running and just weakened, black book in similar type of race and fair sort of a horse.

LEMON CRUSH from the Bruce Purcell stable could be good dark here in our black bookers and this nice type of 3yo

on only 17/94, still has 6 lengths up his sleeve and in 21 days could run a great race at big odds, watch out for.

The grey NORTHERN SOUL, fair type on 17/95 sweated up and they need to work on its blood count to win next start.

 

 

 

Race 3.   Handicap 1715m

 

 

Winner ROYAL GLANCE got the money on only 17/95 and not only sweated up like a pig dog,

but broke out into lather.

I was a very big run and no doubt will strip fitter next start, and this lightly raced nice type can go on to better things.

Get its blood count up to 20 and it may run a cheeky race in the city soon.

 

CALIBRATE   17/96 solid, strong type from the Tony Noonan stable did all it could on the pace and held but missed out, unplaced.

The foundations are there to win with this horse, but the trainers needs to address his blood count to win soon.

ALREADY TAKEN and FLASH OF HEART are both nice type, but need to be fitter next start.

 

 

Race 4.   3yo 1200m

 

Got some good black bookers here punters.

From the Freedman Camp  KILIM sweated up, nice strong type of a horse on only 17/96 will strip fitter next

start and watch out for, ready to win. 3^rd on the turn and weaken, will improve.

The impressive 2^nd up type ONCEBITTENTWICESHY , this is a quality type of a horse and in the race early,

only to weaken badly over the last 150 metres because 2^nd up and up slightly in class.

On solid 18/96 fitness levels, ready now for short race kill in an easier grade. Watch out for.

SO YOU DRINK, nice type ran on solidly and 3^rd up in about 16-21 days can win, fair type of a horse here.

Winners here punters.

 

 

 

Race 5.  H’cap 2218 metres.

 

A distance race with some ordinary horses here but a few we can black book.

Going down by a nose, the Lee Freedman trained CUBAN PERFECTION on 18/98 fitness levels

just missed the boat.

Has solid blood count and well in the fitness zone, so try again. My first bet here on $1.86 a place, got the money

SUPER SUN is a nice type, just a bit lean but on 18/97, needs to drop back in distance to win next start, watch out for

BREAK THE MOMENT dead set distance horse around the 2,000 metres, just struggled over the 2218 metres.

On 18/97 fit, black book in just a shade shorter race and can win.

SAVY HENRY still has 3 lengths improvement and getting into the fitness zone so follow again.

 

 

 

Race 6.   Handicap Fillies and Mares 1100mm

 

A big go here from the Darren Weir stable came unstuck $5.20 - $3.80 but on only 17/95,

this strong type finished off ok, but they never had the fitness levels to plunge here.

So egos or bad tips I would say, follow next start.  SPRINGALON should off been fitter.

Oliver on the fancied STAR OF HARKAWAY on 18/97 had a small heart written all over it

in the form guide and that is what happened, gone 200 out.

Get it back to 1000 metres in a weaker, grade and can win, last chance though!

 

Value black booker here in LOVE FIELD, in 21 days or more, up early and this nice type has

heaps of improvement and watch out for 21 days or 3^rd up.

 

 

Race 7.   Handicap 1200mm

 

I got it right here and had the $26.00 / $5.20 fixed on top, ex Darwin horse STRATCOMBE,

strong type on 18/98% fit just missed out with a good time run for close 2^nd.

I roved in trifecta and got good part of $1500 dividend and took the $5.20 a place fixed.

He is fit and in the bush big show next start, or weak city race.

 

The fav. GOLD FORCE from the Hawkes camp on 17/96 is a nice type and 3^rd up will be a lot fitter.

Watch out for as not on the job today in fitness.

Nice days punting for me, all on the last race.

 

INTERSTATE ON THE TELE.

 

Saw 2 fit horses today and one won @ $14  and other unlucky in the run, or actually the jockey

just stayed on the fence, when should of tried to get clear at the 600m

 

At Gawler, YEN on 18/98 won easily, once he got clear over the last 150 metres, nice horse and

$14.00  each huge odds on fittest horse.

 

Warwick Farm LORD LEOFRIC, unlucky runner on 19/98% try next start.

 

Cheers Jim

Coutesty of champion picks.

 

David Duffield: Our last podcast episode was based around listener questions so I wanted to repeat the dose for yourself. What I’ll do is run through the questions that we received which were, “What would you ask if you sat down for a quiet beer with a professional punter?” You’re right to run through those?

Ben Krahe: Well, there’s no such thing as a quiet beer with me, but sure.

David Duffield: Alright, well the first set of questions, you could broadly categorise it as getting started. How did you gain the confidence when starting out? I know you’ve got the bookmaking background, but how did you get any confidence to basically go solo as a professional punter?

Ben Krahe: Well, Dave, to put it bluntly, I had been to some bookmakers. I’ve been in around the traps and I take a lot of knowledge from all the bookmakers and even the professional punters that punted with me. I like to put all that in the memory bank hopefully. One day, I decided to leave the bookmaking side of it and had a little bit of a bankroll behind me and decided, “Let’s give it a go for real this time.” I’ve always thought I was good enough to do it, but I didn’t have the discipline to do it. We gave it a go, and 3 1/2 years later or whatever it is, we’re still doing it. Something’s going okay.

David Duffield: In terms of getting started and then the ongoing stuff, well, I know you’re pretty meticulously do records, did you already have the mindset and also the … I’m not sure of what the exact word is. Did you do that consistently, the record keeping side of things before you went professional, or only once you got started?

Ben Krahe: I probably did it for about 6 months before. That was another thing that influenced my decision to be able to go out by myself. I just decided we’ve got to make sure you can do it.
But keeping records is the main way to do it. Now as you’ve outlined, I keep a record of every bet I’ve had, every track it’s at. I can tell you where I win and where I don’t, and that’s pretty much how we narrow down where we do a bit.

David Duffield: So we had a question. It’s probably not as relevant for you being a ratings based punter. It says, “What is regarded as an acceptable strike rate for a serious punter to aim for, or is there another measure that should guide a punter?”

Ben Krahe: Well, as you said, I don’t really go on strike rates and I don’t think anyone really does. I mean for a start, you got to make a profit that’s obvious. If you can make somewhere above … I would say somewhere above bank interest. If you can make 7% or 8% or 10%, you’re flying in my books.

There wouldn’t be 1% of punters that they even win, let alone get close to winning. If you can make somewhere around that just under 10%, by the time you think of all the turnover you’re doing in a year, that’s quite a lot. You can make six figures out of it. I’m not a millionaire and never will be but we don’t big enough to do that. But as long as we’re getting by and that’s the way I look at it.

David Duffield: You might be a millionaire if there was a bookie who’d take your bets.

Ben Krahe: No. Maybe a million baht but that’s about it.

David Duffield: Another question – what in your opinion is the biggest key to your long term success?

Ben Krahe: It’s discipline 100%. You cannot chase, David. You must know that there’s no last race. You know the last race has just been run at Newcastle today and we didn’t win but there’s no use chasing it tonight.
There’ll be another race tomorrow. Discipline’s the main thing and discipline at staking is as well. Discipline is everything but making sure that you don’t let emotion come into it and you don’t … When you’re losing, you know that the winning’s coming up, so don’t go chasing it.

David Duffield: Yeah I was about to ask that. One other question here was, how do you have the discipline not to over bet? I’m pretty sure they would mean in the good times and the bad.

Ben Krahe: Well, I start off by … I’m a little bit different here. I’ve got all my stuff on the computer at the moment but even when I’m at home, I turn Skye Channel off when the races are on for a start.
I don’t want to be influenced by Joe Blow by saying the late mail is this and it’s firmed ten points and all of a sudden I might think I left a good bet. If I’m not having a bet in the race, I turn it over to Channel V or whatever and watch the music or watch some sport.

For mine, I don’t even want to be interested in … I mean you can take an interest in it but unless you can sit there and watch the races and not have a bet on it, turn them off until your race comes on. That’s my first bit of advice.
Secondly is that you’ve got to have a staking plan. You’ve got to stick to it even if you’re winning and the next bet looks like the best bet in the world. You’ve got a price , so you’ve got a certain stake. Stick to it and the reason you are winning is because you are sticking to it. The day that you start to double your bets or triple your bets or something like this, you can wipe out a whole day’s work in one race by doing that. That’s the most important as well.

David Duffield: Okay. This was an interesting one. My biggest pain is me. In your punting life, have you ever felt this way? It’s an up and down business. Could you share some strategies on some ordinary periods?

Ben Krahe: I mean, everyone goes through them and everyone thinks they’re a jinx or they think if they back it that it’s not going to win and these type of things.
You’ve got to realise that it’s got nothing to do with you. It’s all happening out there. It’s nothing to do with what you’re doing. You just need to do the right things and do it consistently. If you have a bad day, bad week or whatever, hopefully your staking plan will allow for those times. Here at Champion Picks, I had a real bad three weeks, I think, at one stage where we really lost quite badly but we’d won that much beforehand.

Hopefully, you had enough in the bank to cover it and we know that it’s going to come good. That’s what it did. It came good at the end of the year.
I know we’ve had a bit of a slow start at the start of this year, but we know that tomorrow, next week or next month, will be a winning month and we’ll cover it.

You’ve just got to accept the loss when it happens. There’s bad luck, yes. There’s no such thing as your due. These type of words are just stuff that mugs say.
There’s bad luck, yes, but you get good luck when you get the wins as well. You’ve just got to make sure that you can’t let it get you down. If the last race of the day is finished, turn off the TV. Turn off the computer. Go and spend some time with the family. Go to the pub, whatever but forget all about it and just remember that tomorrow, there’ll be another race.

David Duffield: Yeah. These are related and it’s an amalgamation, I suppose, of a few questions but they are related to, how to stay confident when three or four punts go wrong and how to handle the round of losses, how to deal with the psychological trauma of a long run of outs, how to handle losing odds on selections. Was there anything else that you wanted to add because this was a very common question?

Ben Krahe: Yeah. Look, I think that keeping records is a really important part of this. If we’ve kept every record when we’re having a bad trot we can go back and see, hang on a minute, we won for … I think we had 24 days in a row or something or you won something ridiculous you know Dave .

You can go back and say, “Hang on a minute, there was a winning patch here. There was a losing patch there.” It will turn around in the long run. We know it’s going to come back again. You’ve just got to be positive. You cannot let it get to you.

There will be losing times. Every person in the world will have losing times. It’s just ridiculous to think that you won’t.
If one will have a bad month, maybe even a bad year but you’ve just got to be confident in what we’re doing and being confident in your results and just remember that the good times, and just remember when you get the good times again to not over bet them and just keep plugging away at what we do and that will cover the bad times.

David Duffield: We had a question about how do you manage time, family, work and punting.

Ben Krahe: Well punting’s first isn’t it out of all those?
Look, it’s a good question. I’m in a different situation. My wife works 9 to 5 and I’m in a different position probably for most people since I’m four hours behind than you guys.
I get up and do some work early and I pretty much work the whole day while she’s at work. When she gets home, I try and make sure I do some stuff with her. I think it’s important to not all be about punting. Whether it’s just going and have a game of golf or whatever, or going down to the pub or doing something with your wife, or even turning a footy match on and don’t have a bet in it. Just sit there and actually just watch a match for the enjoyment.
These are the things you need to do to switch off.

Don’t stress that you lost. Don’t go over celebrating because you won, because remember that that’s the money that you might need tomorrow. All these things, you’ve got to be able to switch off and when the last race has been run for the day, yeah, go and do something completely different.

David Duffield: Well, of all the guys I speak to and I came across a few these days, I think you’ve got one of the better work-life balances amongst them all because you certainly put in the hours but there’s also plenty of time I think from what I’ve heard and seen, socialising, golfing, whatever. Just something away from the desk. A lot of people get chained to the desk.

Ben Krahe: Well, Dave, I sort of get up at 5:00 in the morning here and yeah it’s an early start but I can get 3 hours done before my wife goes to work. I go and have some breakfast with her. Have a coffee and then I sit down for the next 8 hours or whatever it is till 4:00, till she gets home and I do work and I do these 3 days a week during the week. Twice a week, I go and play golf, so I just get some work done before I go and then I get a game of golf in twice a week and Saturdays and Sundays, you should put a couple of hours in.

It all adds up to 50 hours a week which is a good week. I sort of space it out too. That’s the benefit of working from home and for yourself.
I can do it when I like. I do have deadlines to meet obviously. If I want to get up at 5 in the morning and get a good 3 hours work done before anyone’s around, it’s a good thing to do. As I said, I break up my week with a couple of games of golf. Friday, I night I go down to the pub with the boys and have a game of pool and just forget all about even whether I won or lost. I just want to get that right out of my head and have some relaxed time because it can’t be all about this.