Start of week 20

16/17 top line fitter horses won                          94% win strike rate

22/22 lays on unfit horses we won on                 100% strike rate

$10.7k in exotics

ROI for the day   80%, now we have broken the 5,000% profit in 20 weeks (5,040%)

Long Term, top line fitter horses are winning 87% of the time.

We win again tomorrow.

I have no fear.

James

I would say that if I put a blind fold over my eyes and ran

my hand over horses, I could still do my fitness ratings.

James

I had to get it right.

1% = 1 length.

Also on my fitness sheets from the yard,  I divided a horse into 25% of 1 percent and it stands up.

So looks like this:

99%                  5

98.75%            2 (98.75% fit)  – 6 (98.50% - 4 (98.25% fit) – 11 98.25% fit

98%                 7

95%  Lay       14  (Which is actually 88%, but bottom rating)

That is how it had to be done.

Why not start your own Fitness Edge Punters Club?

Visit twitter@fithorses

Easy another 100% ROI profit so far today.

I have no fear.

James

Mr James Conway CEO 28.8

28.8 World’s No 1 LIVE FREE Horse Fitness TV

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

www.28point8.com

Betfair Banter  (the topic was that no one from this plant can do what I have done)

Planet earth is only one of my many galaxy stop offs.

You watched Frankel win his maiden. (that was me)

I was there when Archer won the 1st Melbourne Cup

I rode Red Rum to beat Crisp in the Grand National

I was cheering for Ben Hur to win that epic Chariot Race as I was the starter.

I got  Pie fit to win the Grand National for Elizabeth Taylor (that was me)

I was the speech therapist for Mr Ed, originally he could only talked in mandarin.

I taught Trigger his tricks for Hop along Cassidy (that was me)

I have never said I was from earth.

I have no fear.

Good evening punters,

A hot day coming up and I will be doing the early start for Kilmore and then Armidale,

all happening at 11.10am.

Punters club members had a chance to win $26,000 in PROFITS on Saturday

when on fire for only 11 races.

See you tomorrow.

Jim

Winx back to get ready for autumn

A few weeks after her record-equalling third Cox Plate, champion Winx is back in Chris Waller's stable to begin the build-up to her next challenge.

Whether that includes a trip overseas or not, Winx has been prepared with the necessary inoculations.

Waller said she had come back well from her break but nothing was set in stone.

For the past two years, Winx has begun her campaign in the Group Two Apollo Stakes followed by the Group Two Chipping Norton Stakes and George Ryder Stakes.

"She's back in the stable but I'm not sure yet where she will start off," Waller said.

"And there is no decision yet whether she goes overseas."

One of her owners, Peter Tighe, said in a recent radio interview the lure of an unprecedented fourth Cox Plate win was tempting.

Winx (AUS)

Chris Waller

6yoM (b) Street Cry x Vegas Showgirl

Rating 132

Career

32 26-3-0

Earnings

$15,575,925

Last 10

10 10-0-0

Win Range

1100-2200m

But a trip to Royal Ascot in June would almost certainly rule that out because of the time she would need in quarantine.

Winx has not been beaten since her second in the Australian Oaks in April 2015.

Her winning sequence is now 22 with 15 Group One wins included in that number.

Winx remains No.2 in the world rankings behind Dubai World Cup winner, the now-retired Arrogate, but is the top-rated horse on turf.

The committee which decides the rankings met in Hong Kong last week to revise the year's racing and determine the final standings for 2017.

The decision whether Winx has leapfrogged Arrogate, who failed to win in his three starts after Dubai, will be known in early January

I found this science forumula 20 years into my reseach and if it did not add up to science I had to start again.


Fitness Margins vs Science

When a horse is 100% fit it can run 50kph over a short distance to win a race.

Why would you want to back a horse that can only run 35kph?

My fitness formula is based on 1% = 1 length in advantage a horse has over another, so a horse 10% less fit

i.e.: 90% can be beaten by 10 lengths by a 100% fit horse.


What tests are there to prove your formula?

Scientific test proved that a car travelling at 45kph (10% slower) behind a car travelling at 50kph

will finish 25 meters behind the faster car over a short distance, the same as horses at full speed.



The length of a horse is universally accepted at 2.4 meters, so x 10 lengths = 24 meters.


So my formula is scientifically proven and correct, and it only took me 50 years!


Punters ask yourself; "Why would you want to back a horse unfit to run only 35kph when you can back a horse 100% fit horse to win running at 50kph?"


That is the fitness edge I have.


How fit is your next bet and how fast can it run?

I have no fear.

James

What is your risk factors on laying unfit horses?

Currently, I find the worst unfit horse/s around the - 88% ratings that give away up to 12 lengths on horse/s

that I rate 100% fit and a bit less.

I have a sensational strike rate of 275 win lays for 273 wins (99.27% Win strike rate) and

275 place lays for 268 wins, (97,45% win strike rate a place),  but is there a lot more to this?

Generally my win lay prices are 8/1 in smaller fields and up to 100/1 on hopelessly unfit horses

in the wrong race.

With 165 win lays in a row, undefeated; they are world record best results never seen before.

Now let’s look at some other figures.

Maximum says "It’s An Acceptable Risk"

My top line fitter horses are winning @ 86% strike rate and the other 2 rated horses

on the second line have another 5% win strike rate.

So my selection of fittest horses (7) take care of 91% of horses in every race, priced from 2 on to 100/1.

This leaves only 9% for horses outside my ratings, are a danger?

So do you have a 9% risk of losing laying outside my fittest horses?

No.

If I call 7 horses in the fitter ratings and there are 7 unfit in a 14 horse race,

they are the risk factor horses which represent 9% that you are laying into.

So 7 horses into 9% = has a risk factor of 1.28% each and you a 98.72% chance of winning on that lay.

Sure you are now gambling on more unfit rated horses getting up, but stats show that

they are only a 1.28% risk factor.

Blind Freddie and see this  is far better than not knowing who is fit, and losing on your lay when it wins.

This also means that some of the 9% of horses outside my fitness ratings are priced at

6/4 – 10/1, considerably reducing your liability.

Is this a good edge for lay punters who want less liabilities?

Of course it is.

“I have no fear.”

James