What is your risk factors on laying unfit horses?
Currently, I find the worst unfit horse/s around the - 88% ratings that give away up to 12 lengths on horse/s
that I rate 100% fit and a bit less.
I have a sensational strike rate of 275 win lays for 273 wins (99.27% Win strike rate) and
275 place lays for 268 wins, (97,45% win strike rate a place), but is there a lot more to this?
Generally my win lay prices are 8/1 in smaller fields and up to 100/1 on hopelessly unfit horses
in the wrong race.
With 165 win lays in a row, undefeated; they are world record best results never seen before.
Now let’s look at some other figures.
Maximum says "It’s An Acceptable Risk"
My top line fitter horses are winning @ 86% strike rate and the other 2 rated horses
on the second line have another 5% win strike rate.
So my selection of fittest horses (7) take care of 91% of horses in every race, priced from 2 on to 100/1.
This leaves only 9% for horses outside my ratings, are a danger?
So do you have a 9% risk of losing laying outside my fittest horses?
If I call 7 horses in the fitter ratings and there are 7 unfit in a 14 horse race,
they are the risk factor horses which represent 9% that you are laying into.
So 7 horses into 9% = has a risk factor of 1.28% each and you a 98.72% chance of winning on that lay.
Sure you are now gambling on more unfit rated horses getting up, but stats show that
they are only a 1.28% risk factor.
Blind Freddie and see this is far better than not knowing who is fit, and losing on your lay when it wins.
This also means that some of the 9% of horses outside my fitness ratings are priced at
6/4 – 10/1, considerably reducing your liability.
Is this a good edge for lay punters who want less liabilities?
Of course it is.
“I have no fear.”